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Trading Diary
January 5, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The fast up-trend on the Dow Industrial Average is likely to encounter resistance at the 2002 high of 10600 and either pull back to the long-term trendline or consolidate below the resistance level (a bullish sign similar to the consolidation after [a]). The index closed at 10544.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite closed up strongly at 2047 and faces a similar resistance band at 2050 to 2077.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 faces a clearer path than the above two indexes: the next resistance level is at 1175. The index closed up at 1122.
The intermediate trend is up.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1109 (last Monday's high). Bearish below 1106 (Tuesday's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1109.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased further to 85.06% (January 5).


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is up at 4.38%.
The intermediate trend is uncertain.
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (00.30): Spot gold jumped to $423.30.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries encountered resistance, pulling back to 3296 on higher volume. If the index is able to penetrate resistance at 3317, we may see a strong surge in January, historically a bullish month, as institutional buyers return from their holidays. If the intermediate trend turns down, we are likely to see a re-test of support at 3160.



MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3317.

The All Ords is below its long-term trendline, signaling weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3317. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


The object of a New Year is not that we should have a new year. It is that we should have a new soul and a new nose; new feet, a new backbone, new ears, and new eyes. Unless a particular man made New Year resolutions, he would make no resolutions. Unless a man starts afresh about things, he will certainly do nothing effective. Unless a man starts on the strange assumption that he has never existed before, it is quite certain that he will never exist afterwards. Unless a man be born again, he shall by no means enter into the Kingdom of Heaven.

~ GK Chesterton: Daily News (circa 1907).





We wish you peace, health and prosperity in the year ahead.




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