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November 26, 2003
The Dow Industrial Average closed slightly up at 9780. Low volume may be due to tomorrow's holiday.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 9500 and 9230.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1840 and 1780.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1064. Bearish below 1048 (Today's low).
Intermediate: Bullish above 1064.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The University of Michigan index of consumer confidence strengthened to 93.7 from 89.6 in October. (more)
New unemployment claims fell to a 33-month low of 351,000 last week. (more)
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed up slightly at 4.24%.
The intermediate trend is down after bearish equal highs below a higher peak.
The primary trend is up.
New York (13.30): Spot gold rallied to $396.50.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed above its signal line.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords rises above 3212 (the November 12 low). Bearish below today's low of 3194.
The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (the October 1 low).
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Neutral. Bearish below 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has climbed strongly over the last 6 months, signaling accumulation, after a cathartic sell-off in February.
At this stage of the market I would rather aim for a neutral position, balancing existing long positions with new short entries.
Last covered on February 12, 2003.
AMC has completed a double top at resistance at 9.00 and now appears to be starting a pull-back to test the new resistance band at 8.50 to 8.57. A strong bear signal will result if price and Relative Strength (xao) both respect the new resistance level.
A rise above 9.00 would be bullish.
Happy is he who has been able to learn the cause of things.
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