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Earlier updates

In future an ASX edition of the Trading Diary (sans US charts)
will be available on the website and emailed before 7:00 a.m. (Sydney time).

A later US market update will be emailed around midday.




Trading Diary
November 25, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average closed slightly higher at 9764. Low volume signals a lack of commitment from buyers.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 9500 and 9230.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite closed 4 points lower at 1943. Higher volume signals increased selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1840 and 1780.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 closed 2 points up at 1054. Higher volume signals increased selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is down.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1064. Bearish below 1049 (Today's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1064.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 80.08% (November 25).


GDP growth
GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.2% in the third quarter - likely to already be discounted in current stock prices. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed at the 4.19% support level.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (20.13): Spot gold is level at $391.50.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation between 390 and resistance at 400 is bearish.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed up 21 points at 3197. The longish upper shadow and higher volume on Tuesday suggest the presence of resistance at 3206 (Thursday's high) to 3212 (the previous Wednesday's low).



The intermediate trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords rises above 3212. Bearish below Friday's low of 3171.

XAO is below the long-term trendline, signaling weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (the October 1 low).
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

BHP Billiton [BHP]
Last covered on August 25, 2003.
BHP formed a new high at [1] while Twiggs Money Flow (100) fell sharply; a strong bearish divergence.



After a lower peak at [2], price dipped below the previous low, before recovering. The real test is whether the rally will be able to break through resistance at the high of [2]. Failure to do so will be a bear signal. Even stronger if Relative Strength (xao) displays the same pattern.
Prudent traders would only short the stock if price and RS respect the new resistance level, at the low between [1] and [2]. 

Earlier, a long entry was taken when price and RS respect the new support level at [e].



Jubilee Mines [JBM]
Last covered on August 25, 2003.
JBM has reversed sharply after a strong up-trend. Is this a secondary reaction or a stage 3 top?
Twiggs Money Flow (100) gives a clue, remaining below zero to signal distribution.



Relative Strength (xao) has also fallen below recent support. If the current upswing respects the new resistance level (on price and RS charts), the evidence will favor a primary trend reversal.

Earlier, a long entry at [e] was taken when the pull-back of price (and RS) respected a new support level.



A dry-up of volume and volatility near 4.10, the low of [1], will increase the likelihood of the pull-back respecting resistance.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


The Paradox of Our Time in History

The paradox of our time in history is that....
We have taller buildings but shorter tempers, wider freeways, but narrower viewpoints.
We spend more, but have less.
We buy more, but enjoy less.
We have bigger houses and smaller families, more conveniences, but less time.
We have more degrees but less sense, more knowledge, but less judgment, more experts, yet more problems, more medicine, but less wellness.
We drink too much, smoke too much, spend too recklessly, laugh too little, drive too fast,
get too angry, stay up too late, get up too tired, read too little, watch TV too much, and pray too seldom.
We have multiplied our possessions, but reduced our values.
We talk too much, love too seldom, and hate too often 
We've learned how to make a living, but not a life.
We've added years to life not life to years.
We've been all the way to the moon and back, but have trouble crossing the street to meet a new neighbor.
We conquered outer space but not inner space.
We've done larger things, but not better things.
We've cleaned up the air, but polluted the soul.
We've conquered the atom, but not our prejudice.
We write more, but learn less. We plan more, but accomplish less.
We've learned to rush, but not to wait. 
We build more computers to hold more information, to produce more copies than ever, but we communicate less and less.
These are the times of fast foods and slow digestion, big men and small character, steep profits and shallow relationships.
These are the days of two incomes but more divorce, fancier houses, but broken homes.
These are days of quick trips, disposable diapers, throwaway morality, one night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do everything from cheer, to quiet, to kill. 
It is a time when there is much in the showroom window and nothing in the stockroom......



~ Unknown.





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