November 21, 2003
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The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 9500 and 9230.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1840 and 1780.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect a test of the primary trendline, with further support at 990.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1062. Bearish below 1034 (Tuesday's low).
Intermediate: Bullish above 1062.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Dorsey maintains that a fall below 70 ( and not a 3-box reversal) signals a bear alert.
A weak dollar will make US exports more competitive in overseas markets. But a fall in the dollar will hurt US bond and stock markets, placing upward pressure on interest rates, with a negative impact on the economy. (more)
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed down at 4.15%.
The intermediate trend has turned down after bearish equal highs at  and  below a higher peak at .
The primary trend is up.
New York (13.30): Spot gold consolidated just below resistance at 400, a bullish sign, closing the week at $395.80.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed above.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords crosses back above resistance at 3250. Bearish below 3189 (Thursday's low).
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is level).
- Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) continues to fall, reaching 15 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). There are no prominent sectors.
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
- Ventracor - VCR
- Ansell - ANN
- Billabong - BBG
- Peptech - PTD
- Hardman Resources - HDR
but difficult to look further than you can see.
~ Winston Churchill.
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