November 10, 2003
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. Expect resistance at 2000 to 2060.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. Expect resistance at 1100.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1062. Bearish below 1045.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1062.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Despite several chip stock upgrades, techs sank lower at the start of the week. (more)
The yield on 10-year treasury notes increased slightly to 4.46%.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
New York (16:49): Spot gold has recovered to $385.70.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended and probability of a reversal increases with each successive primary trend movement. The index is testing the primary trendline, but only a fall below 3160 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) is below its signal line and displays a bearish "triple" divergence.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3267. Bearish below 3238.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3267.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160.
Last covered October 27, 2003.
After a false break above the previous high of 17.00 at , WBC threatens to complete a head and shoulders reversal. The head is at , with shoulders at  and . I prefer to draw the neckline horizontally from the low between  and , at 15.35. This is not in accordance with the classic H&S chart pattern, which would draw a sloping neckline, but it does coincide with a trend change in terms of Dow Theory: a lower high at  followed by a break below the previous low - to me a more meaningful signal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a strong bear signal, falling below the previous low as well as crossing below zero.
Last covered October 16, 2003.
ANZ continues to fall after an earlier trend reversal at . Relative Strength (xao) and Twiggs Money Flow (100) are bearish.
Last covered November 6, 2003.
SGB appears to be consolidating after the sharp drop at [c]. Declining volume supports a bearish continuation signal.
Last covered on July 7, 2003 (before the rights issue on August 20, 2003 with a dilution factor 0.98).
I will be watching stocks such as BOQ, which have not followed the sector trend, for signs of weakness.
So far as any inferences from the
Dow-Jones stock averages is concerned
the major bull market in stocks is still
Sometime, and probably next year, we shall experience a marked shortage of capital for investment and speculation, and the stock market will know it first.
It will develop a major downward movement, when the whole country is bubbling with prosperity and ever expanding hope.
~ William Peter Hamilton: The Wall Street Journal (November 9, 1925).
(shades of Von Mises' credit expansion)
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