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Daylight Saving

As of 2.00am 26 October 2003, Daylight Saving begins in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the ACT. Market hours remain unchanged in these States but will commence one hour earlier in all other States. 




Trading Diary
October 24, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average formed a long tail, closing at 9582 on strong volume; signaling buying support above the long-term trendline. 
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite formed a weak close on higher volume, signaling support above the long-term trendline.
The intermediate trend has turned down. Expect support at 1783.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 closed 5 points down at 1034 on lower volume. The long tail signals buying support; a hammer reversal.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased to 80.31% (October 24).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1054. Bearish below 1026.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1054.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.


Market lukewarm
The sell-off of tech stocks, after a conservative forecast by Microsoft, reflect a lack of enthusiasm from buyers. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes appears headed for a test of support at 4.00%, after a downward close at 4.21%.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold rallied to $388.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries lost 8 points to close at 3266. Lower volume is an encouraging sign above support at 3250.



The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended and the probability of a reversal increases with each successive primary trend movement. 
A fall below 3160 will signal reversal.  

MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed below and displays a bearish "triple" divergence.



Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3317. Bearish below 3283.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3317.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160.

Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is level
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)


Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) rose to 66 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Broadcasting & Cable TV (6)
  • Publishing (4)
  • Construction Materials (4)
  • Construction & Engineering (3)
  • Steel (3)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (3)
  • Casinos & Gaming (3)
  • Data Processing (3)
  • REITs (3)

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • APN News Media - APN
  • Fairfax - FXJ
  • PMP Limited - PMP
  • West Australian Newspapers - WAN
  • Sirtex - SRX
  • Chemeq - CMQ
  • Cohlear - COH
  • Gribbles - GGL
  • Oil Search - OSH
  • Novus Petroleum - NVS
  • ROC Oil - ROC


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


In studies of price movement inertia has its value as well as activity,
and not infrequently gives an important indication of future changes
of a more radical character.

~ William Hamilton: The Wall Street Journal (July 14, 1911).




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