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Trading Diary
October 22, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average broke through initial support on higher volume, closing down 1.5% at 9598.
The intermediate trend has reversed. Support is at 9230.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite fell 43 points to close at 1898 on average volume.
The intermediate trend has reversed. Support is at 1783.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 lost 16 points to close at 1030 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend has reversed. Support is at 990.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator fell to 81.11% ( October 22).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bearish if the S&P500 is below 1036.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1054.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.


Tech stocks down
Amazon and Lucent report favorable earnings but techs are sold down. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes fell to 4.27%.
The intermediate trend is up. Expect resistance at 4.60%, support at 4.25%.
The primary trend is up.




Gold
New York (18:40): Spot gold has soared to $386.10.
The intermediate trend has turned up.
The primary trend is up.


ASX Australia
After early gains the All Ordinaries retreated to close down 6 points at 3305 on average volume. A fall below 3283 will be bearish.



The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 will signal reversal.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) has whipsawed below its signal line, displaying a bearish "triple" divergence.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3317. Bearish below 3283.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3317.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160.

Cohlear [COH]
Last covered July 31, 2002. Cochlear's retreat from its high above 50.00 was interrupted by strong support at 30.00. Price has consolidated above this level for the past 12 months but is now displaying lower highs, with resistance at 35.00, a bearish sign.  

Twiggs Money Flow (100) has failed to cross above zero on rallies, a strong bear signal.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) gives another strong bear signal, falling to a new 2-year low.
A close below 30.00 will confirm this.



Gribbles [GGL]
GGL displays a stage 1 base after a lengthy down-trend. Support is at 0.40 and resistance at 0.60. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals strong distribution, failing to cross above the zero line on recent rallies.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is testing its 3-month low; a break below this level will be a bear signal.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


The superficial observer is constantly startled to find that the stock market fails to respond to sudden and important developments;
while it seems to be guided by impulses too obscure to be traceable.
Consciously or unconsciously, the movement of prices reflects not the past but the future.
When coming events cast their shadows before, the shadow falls on the New York Stock Exchange.

~ William Hamilton: The Wall Street Journal (March 27, 1911)




Brokers: Negotiating the best rates

One of our members suggested that we approach online stock/cfd brokers to negotiate a favorable deal for our members:
lower transaction fees/monthly charges and a reasonable interest rate spread.

I need to establish that there is sufficient interest before approaching any brokers.
Please post your comments at the above link.



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