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Trading Diary
October 17, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average retreated 0.7% on lower volume. Expect support at 9660.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite lost 38 points, closing at 1912 on lower volume, testing support at 1910.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 closed 11 points down at 1039 on lower volume. The break below initial support at 1040 signals a loss of momentum.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased slightly to 81.71% ( October 17).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1054.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1054.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.


Consumer sentiment up
Preliminary readings for the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment indicate a rise to 89.4; up from September but only marginally above the August reading. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed the week at 4.39%.
The intermediate trend is up. Expect resistance at 4.60%.
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold has weakened to $371.30.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up, with support at 343 to 350.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries formed a small pennant over the last four days, closing 1 point down on Friday at 3301. Lower volume is an encouraging sign: high volume over the previous 2 days signaled strong selling pressure.



The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended, with 4 primary trend movements at [a], [c], [e] and [g]; and 3 secondary corrections at [b], [d] and [f]. The probability of a reversal increases with each primary trend movement. Elliot wave theory maintains that the natural cycle is 5 waves, [a] to [e], while Gann holds that a bull campaign will normally have 3 or 4 advances, [a] to [e] or [g].
A fall below 3160 will signal reversal.  

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed back above; Twiggs Money Flow (100) is above its signal line but displays a "triple" bearish divergence.



Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3307.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160.

Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising).
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is level). An unstable V-bottom.
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)

Financials-X-Property [XXJ] is consolidating in a triangular pattern. However, Relative Strength (xjo) is falling; a strong bear signal.



Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) rose to 63 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (5)
  • Broadcasting & Cable TV (5)
  • Diversified Financial (4)
  • Gold (4)
  • Publishing (3)
  • Construction Materials (3)
  • Steel (3)

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Publishing & Broadcasting - PBL
  • Seven Network - SEV
  • Ten Network - TEN
  • Prime Television - PRT
  • Austereo - AEO
  • Southern Cross Broadcasting - SBC
  • Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group - MCG
  • Novogen - NRT
  • Novus Petroleum - NVS
  • Zimbabwe Platinum - ZIM
  • Smorgon Steel - SSX
  • Lion Selection Group - LSG
  • National Australia Bank - NAB
  • ANZ Bank - ANZ
  • Commonwealth Bank - CBA
  • Westpac - WBC


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


There is, perhaps, no greater pitfall
than being an adamant and continuing bear.

...... it is a real danger to look for disaster so constantly
as to miss opportunities.

~ Richard Arms: Trading Without Fear.




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