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Trading Diary
October 16, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average continued to decline, closing slightly lower at 9792. Lower volume signals trend strength. Expect support at 9660.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9230 would signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite reversed direction with a weaker closing price reversal, closing 11 points higher at 1950 on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


 


The S&P 500 formed an inside day, gaining 3 points to close at 1050 on lower volume; a continuation signal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 81.75% (October 16).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1043.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1043.
Long-term: Bullish above 990.


Production rises
The Fed reports that industrial production rose 0.4% in September, against 0.1% in August. (more)

Jobless claims lower
New unemployment claims fell to 384,000 last week, compared to a revised 388,000 the week before. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes climbed to 4.46%. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.




Gold
New York (20:56): Spot gold eased to $371.00.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up, with support at 343 to 350.


ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries formed a small pennant, closing up 10 points at 3302. The pennant normally signals continuation but unusually high volumes and narrow ranges warn of strong selling pressure.



The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended after 3 secondary corrections back to the trendline; the probability of a reversal increases with each consecutive rally.  

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) is below its signal line having completed another bearish divergence.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3307.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160. Tighten stops (to intermediate level) when the secondary rally ends.

Banks
Last covered July 22, 2003.
The major banks have lost momentum since their upward drive in the first half of the year and now appear headed for a re-test of support levels.

National Australia Bank [NAB] formed an unstable V-bottom at the start of the year before rallying to 34.00. Price has formed a weak head and shoulders pattern at [1], [2] and [3]; weak because the neckline has an upward slope. The primary trend has reversed downward after [3], with a fall below the previous low. Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) continues to fall and a reversal of the secondary retracement, while below  the previous low (32.00), will be a strong bear signal.



ANZ Bank [ANZ] has also completed a primary trend reversal, with a break below the previous low after a lower high at [3]. A reversal of the upward retracement at/below the high of [3] will be a strong bear signal: equal highs below a higher high. Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution. Relative Strength (xao): a fall below the August low will be a strong bear signal.



Commonwealth Bank [CBA] has yet to make a primary trend reversal, consolidating around the 28.00 level after a low at [1]. Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is falling. A fall below 27.28, the low of [1], will be a strong bear signal.



Westpac [WBC] encountered resistance at 17.00, the earlier high from February 2002. Price then tested support at the previous low before again rallying. The primary up-trend is still intact. Twiggs Money Flow (100) is still above zero signaling accumulation, but it may be difficult to overcome resistance at 17.00, considering the weak performance of the other 3 banks. 



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is declining and a fall below the August low will be a strong bear signal.



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Colin Twiggs


Live your life so that whenever you lose, you're ahead.

~ Will Rogers, cowboy humorist (1879 - 1935).




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