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ETOs and Warrants
We are still on target to introduce ETOs and warrants this week. 
US stocks to follow.




Trading Diary
October 8, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average retreated slightly to 9631. Lower volume signals continuation.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above resistance at 9686 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite closed down 14 points at 1894 on encouragingly lower volume.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above resistance at 1914 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 also encountered resistance, closing down 5 points at 1034.
The intermediate trend is weak. A rise above resistance at 1040 will signal resumption of the up-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rose to 80.41% (October 8).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1040. Bearish below 1020.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.


Dollar falls against the euro
The US dollar slipped to within one cent of its all-time low of $1.185 against the euro. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is unchanged at 4.24%.
The intermediate down-trend appears weak. 
The primary trend is up.




Gold
New York (17:57): Spot gold eased to $374.80.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 350 will signal reversal.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).


ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied to test resistance at 3250 on strong volume, closing 23 points higher at 3248.



The intermediate down-trend is weak. Overhead resistance is at 3250; support is at 3160.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.  

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow (21) has turned up, but still signals distribution.


Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3250. Bearish below 3223.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3000.

Mosaic Oil [MOS]
Last covered September 29, 2003.
After forming a broad base MOS has broken through resistance to form a new 1-year high.
Twiggs Money Flow has formed a trough above zero; a strong bull signal.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has also risen to new highs.
A pull-back that respects the new support level at 0.17 may present entry opportunities. A fall below 0.16 would be bearish.



Patrick Corporation [PRK]
Patrick has formed a base in the shape of a symmetrical triangle. Price has now broken above the base.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has yet to resume its upward rise, making new highs.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has also not reached new highs. It would be advisable to wait for the pull-back and stronger signals from the two indicators.



Peptech [PTD]
Last covered October 1, 2002.
Peptech appears headed for a re-test of support at 0.80. After breaking above resistance at 2.00, price struggled to make further gains, forming a lower high followed by a break below the support level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has also made new lows.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) gave advance warning, making a new low one day ahead of price.



Australian Growth Properties [AGH]
After reaching a new 5-year high, above 0.85, AGH has consolidated at this level, normally a bullish sign, but Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a bearish divergence.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is also declining.
A rise above 0.90 would be bullish. A fall below 0.79 will be a strong bear signal.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


As traders we belong to a group.
There are sub-groups, such as day-traders, swing traders and long-term (Weinstein) traders,
but the differences, to an outsider, appear relatively minor.
It is important to identify the assumptions and assertions on which the group is based
and to recognize the strong pressures to conform.
How do we react to people who challenge those assumptions?
If group leaders, such as Stan Weinstein or other gurus, say that this is a bull market,
are you likely to maintain a contrary view?

It is important to avoid group-think and being swept along with the herd.




Indicator Help Pages
If you display the legend on a chart, click on an indicator name and this will display the relevant Indicator help page. 
For example, click on Volume:Dy and you will be linked to http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/volume.htm.

Likewise, if you have an indicator selected on the Indicator Panel, click on the Indicator name in the centre panel and it will display the Indicator help page.



Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.


Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.





 
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