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Trading Diary
September 9, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average again tested support at 9500, closing at 9507 on low volume. If the index respects this support level, we will see a fast up-trend. If support is broken the index will likely correct back to test the supporting trendline.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite signaled increased selling pressure with an inside day on strong volume, closing 16 points lower at 1873.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


 


The S&P 500 lost 9 points to close at 1023 on average volume, possibly headed for a test of support at 1015. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at a 10-year high of 80.11% (September 9).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1032.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed almost unchanged at 4.37%. 
The yield is ranging just above the support level, a bullish sign.
The primary trend is up.




Gold
New York (20.22): Spot gold climbed to test overhead resistance at 382, before retreating to $381.00.
The primary trend is up.
Price has broken above a symmetrical triangle formed since the start of the year. If gold penetrates overhead resistance at 382, the target is the 10-year high of 420.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed up 5 points at 3238 on average volume, forming a gravestone reversal signal.



The intermediate and primary trends are up. 

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed above; Twiggs Money Flow shows a bearish divergence.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long above 3250.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3160.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .




Gold stocks
An update on how gold stocks are performing:

Croesus [CRS] was last covered on August 27, 2003. Since then it has broken out of the bullish consolidation pattern at [1], accompanied by reasonable volume. There was a short consolidation at [2], with low volume and volatility, signaling a fast up-trend. This was confirmed by another strong up-day at [3]. Overhead resistance is at 0.85 to 0.95.




Kingsgate [KCN] was last covered on August 27, 2003. Price has since consolidated between 3.60 and 4.00 forming a bullish pennant. Strong volume at [1] signals buying support above 3.60. Volume has dried up on subsequent corrections at [2] and [3]; a further bullish signal.



Lihir [LHG], covered August 27, 2003, held above support at 1.30, despite several bearish signals, and broke through resistance at 1.45. Price gapped up for two consecutive days at [5] but on light volume. However, LHG then formed a small pennant consolidation on low volume at [6], signaling a fast up-trend.



Newcrest [NCM], covered August 28, resumed its' fast up-trend. Declining volume on the latest rally warns of another correction.



Oxiana [OXR], covered August 28, broke through resistance at 0.76 on strong volume at [2]. A weak close and strong volume on the next day indicate selling pressure, but volume has dried up on the consolidation between 0.76 and 0.82, signaling continuation.



Sons of Gwalia [SGW], covered August 28, is consolidating above support at 2.80 on low volume. A rise above 3.25 will be bullish. A close below 2.80 would be bearish.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

~ Warren Buffet.




Scrolling through data history


On the right of the toolbar there are four (horizontal) scrolling arrows.
To scroll directly to the start of the data, click the first arrow |<.
To scroll forward, day-by-day or week-by-week, click the third arrow >.
To scroll back, use the second <.
To return to the latest data, click >|.

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