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Trading Diary
August 15, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow rallied to 9322 on lower volume. The index is ranging between 9350 and the 9000 support level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite closed 2 points up at 1702 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.


 


The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 991 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has risen 0.74% since last week, closing at 75.09% (August 15).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 986.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 960.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 950.


Blackout affects trading volumes
The blackout resulted in low volumes but indexes mostly end the week flat. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed at 4.53%, up 0.24% on last week.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.





Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold continues to climb, up 690 cents for the week, at $363.10.
The primary trend is still upwards.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 7 points higher than last week, at 3143.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 2978 would signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
MACD and Twiggs Money Flow (21) display bearish divergences.



The weak close and lower volume on the daily chart signals a lack of buyer commitment.



Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3151. Short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3151.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .

Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising) This is an unstable V-bottom.
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 1 (RS is rising)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising) Another V-bottom.
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)


Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) declined to 65 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Gold (7)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (5)
  • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (5)
  • Health Care Facilities (3)
  • Health Care Equipment (3)
  • Construction Materials (3)
  • Auto Parts & Equipment (3)

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Jubilee Mining - JBM
  • Centennial Coal - CEY
  • Portman Mining - PMM
  • BHP Billiton - BHP
  • Oxiana Resources - OXR
  • Newcrest - NCM
  • Croesus - CRS
  • Infomedia - IFM
  • Publishing & Broadcasting - PBL
  • News Corporation - NCP
  • Tabcorp Holdings - TAH
  • Ansell - ANN





Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


A healthy skepticism is seldom out of place in Wall Street, so far as speculation is concerned. Money is seldom lost thereby. 
People who have had experience covering one or two panics know very well that the first lesson that has to be learned by the successful speculator is the avoidance of the disaster always caused by a panic.

.....The successful speculator must be content at times to ignore probably two out of every three apparent opportunities to make money,
and must know how to sell and take his profits when the "bull" chorus is loudest.
When he has learned that much, he has learned a great deal.

~ SA Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).



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