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Incredible Charts version 4.0.2.300
The new version will be released this week. Changes include a revised watchlist and securities menu, enabling the addition of ETOs, warrants and US stocks, and a new printer module, with greater printer compatibility and functionality.




Trading Diary
August 13, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow closed 0.4% lower at 9272. Continued low volume signals a lack of commitment from buyers.
The intermediate trend is up. The index is consolidating between 9000 and 9300.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite rallied in early trading but later retreated to close unchanged at 1687 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.


 


The S&P 500 continues to show weakness, closing 6 points lower at 984 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator made further gains to reach 74.77% (August 12).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 980.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 980.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 950.


Consumer spending
Consumers are spending, boosted by gains from mortgage refinancing, but businesses are not hiring more staff. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to a new 1-year high of 4.56%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.



Gold
New York (19.20): Spot gold rallied strongly to $362.20.
The primary trend is still upwards.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries gained 15 points to close at 3150 on lower volume.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is up.

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3149. Short if the intermediate trend turns down.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3149. 
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .

Infomedia [IFM]
The IT sector has formed a stage 1 base and IFM has registered a breakout from a broad stage 1 base.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a huge dip in early May but has since recovered strongly.



Relative Strength has made a 3-month high and MACD is bullish.



The daily volume chart shows large volume on the break out above an ascending triangle at [1].
Low volume and daily range on a short pull-back at [2] presents an ideal entry point for short-term traders.
Price subsequently encountered resistance at 1.00 with reversal signals at [4] and [5]. 
The subsequent breakout at [6] displays a weak close and low volume, signaling that a re-test of the 1.00 support level is likely.
Longer-term traders need to be prudent and wait for a clear buy signal: as at [1] and [2].



Publishing & Broadcasting Limited [PBL]
Media stocks are starting to improve. PBL completed a double bottom at [a] and is now approaching resistance at 10.50, the first target for the breakout.



News Corporation [NCP]
Strong results hardly budged NewsCorp's price in the US.
There has been some recent buying in anticipation of the results, with Twiggs Money Flow (100) crossing into positive territory, but NCP is still in a stage 1 base.



If Relative Strength makes a new 3-month high, this may forewarn of a breakout above 13.00.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


If I had six hours to chop down a tree,
I'd spend the first four hours sharpening the axe.

~ Abraham Lincoln.




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