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Trading Diary
July 25, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow continues to hold above the 9000 support line, closing the week 1.1% higher at 9188.
The intermediate trend is up. The index has formed a symmetrical triangle. MACD continues to respect the zero line.
The primary trend is up.



The S&P 500 rallied Friday to close the week slightly up at 999.
The intermediate is down, with MACD showing a bearish divergence. However, the index has formed an ascending triangle above the 950 support level.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite closed 22 points up on last week at 1731.
The intermediate trend is up. Price has respected support at 1680, signaling trend strength. 
The primary trend is up.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is slightly lower than last week at 75.16% (July 25).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1015. Short if below 976.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 962.
Long-term: Long.
 

Durable goods orders up
Orders for manufactured goods surged a healthy 2.1% in June. (more)



Treasuries
The yield on 10-year notes [TNX] closed the week up 0.21% at 4.18%.
The intermediate trend is up; the primary trend is down.





Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week more than 15 dollars higher at $362.70.
The primary trend is up.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed the week 16 points higher at 3081. The index continued to rally on Friday, gaining 8 points on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The index has formed an ascending triangle with overhead resistance at 3089.
The primary trend is up (marginally).

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3089. Short if the index falls below 3050.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3089; short if below 2979.
Long-term: Long if above 2979.

Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising). This is an unstable V-bottom.
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising). Another V-bottom.
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)


Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) climbed to 80 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (7)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (6)
  • Gold (5)
  • REITs (4)
  • Diversified Financial Services (3)
  • Auto Parts & Equipment (3)

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Oil Search - OSH
  • Novus - NVS
  • Woodside - WPL
  • Hardman - HDR
  • ANZ Bank - ANZ
  • National Australia Bank - NAB
  • Westpac - WBC
  • Commonwealth - CBA
  • Sons Of Gwalia - SGW
  • Amp Limited - AMP
  • Woolworths - WOW
  • HPAL Limited - HPX


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


I have written to little purpose unless I have left the impression
that the fundamental principle that lies at the base of all speculation is this:
Act so as to keep the mind clear, its judgment trustworthy.

~ S.A. Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).




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