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Trading Diary
July 3, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed an inside day, closing at 1.00 p.m. down 0.8% at 9070.
The intermediate trend is still down. Tuesday's false break, below support at 8900, is a bullish sign.
The primary trend is up.

 


The S&P 500 retreated 8 points to 985.
The intermediate trend has turned up. Tuesday's false break, below support at 972, is a bullish sign. 
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.9% to 1663.
The intermediate trend is up. A rise above 1686 will complete a bullish double bottom pattern.
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rose to 74.79% on July 2; 0.43% from its peak.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 995.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 995.
Long-term: Long.


Rising unemployment
The unemployment level rose to 6.4% in June, from 6.1% in May; the highest level in 9 years.
(more)

Market closed
US markets closed 1.00 p.m. Thursday ahead of Friday, Fourth of July holiday.




Gold
New York (13.00): Spot gold closed at $US 350.20.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied 14 points to close at 3017 on lower volume. The negative performance in the US may dampen the local market.
The intermediate trend is still down.
The primary trend is up.



Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3022.
Intermediate: The primary trend has reversed up; Long if the All Ords is above 3022.
Long-term: Long.


Seven Network [SEV]
SEV completed a V-bottom with a break above resistance at 5.00.
The pattern is fragile and prone to failure.

Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation..



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has reached a new 3-month high, a further bull signal. The stock formed a wide-ranging day at the breakout but volume was light, signaling possible weakness.



Entry at this point would be risky. The latest bar may turn into a false break, retreating back below the resistance level. If the rally continues, it would be prudent to wait for a pull-back which respects support at 5.00. Watch for a dry-up of volume and daily range (volatility) close to the support line.
A fall below 4.70 would be bearish.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.

~ Helen Keller.



 
Stock Screens: Volatility Ratio (Schwager) 

Most breakouts and reversal patterns are accompanied by a bar with a larger than normal range.
Jack Schwager compares daily range to the average true range; 
values greater than 2.0 normally signal a wide-ranging day.




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