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Standard & Poors 500 [SPX]
Volume shown is the entire volume traded on the NYSE.
 
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Trading Diary
June 17, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow closed almost unchanged at 9323 on higher volume, signaling selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.



The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher at 1011.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% to close at 1668.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 74.50% on June 16.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 1000.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long - the S&P 500 primary trend has turned upwards after two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal.


Profit-taking
Positive economic data supported the market in a day when profit-taking was evident. (more)




Gold
New York (17.49): Spot gold climbed to $US 362.90.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied strongly, closing up 21 points at 3077 on strong volume. The weaker close indicates selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation, having completed two bullish troughs above zero.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Intermediate: The primary trend has reversed up; Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Long-term: The primary trend reversal has confirmed the March 18 follow through signal. Long if the All Ords is above 3050.


Chemeq [CMQ]
CMQ has corrected sharply, after a fast up-trend developed into an unsustainable spike.



On the daily chart we can see that the stock fell 30% in a single day. That is why end-of-day indicator signals are too slow in a highly volatile market.
A trailing percentage stop (6%), calculated on the intra-day High of 8.64, would have triggered at 8.12.
A 6% trailing stop, as calculated by most brokers, based on the previous day's close, would only trigger at 7.52.
Methinks they should revise their formula.

Twiggs Money Flow (100) still signals accumulation; and MACD (26,12,9) is still positive.



CMQ may yet make another attempt at 8.50. Watch for a dry-up of volume and volatility near the trendline.


Kingsgate [KCN]
Kingsgate has broken below the long-term trendline in early April.
Equivolume highlights heavy selling into the subsequent rally at [1] and in the down-trend at [3].

The weak close and light volume at [4] signaled that the large drop had exhausted momentum.
The subsequent pull-back failed to break above resistance at 3.20.
This was followed by a period of consolidation on light volume before heavy selling resumed at the over-square bar at [7].



A rise above 3.20 would be bullish.
A fall below 2.80 will be a strong bear signal.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


It is not by muscle, speed, or physical dexterity that great things are achieved,
but by reflection, force of character, and judgment;
in these qualities old age is usually not poorer, but is even richer
.

~ Marcus Tullius Cicero (c. 106-43 BC).



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