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May 27, 2003
The Dow made another follow through day, closing up more than 2.0% at 8781 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 8766 signals continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 948 signals continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 1552 signals continuation.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (S&P rises above 954).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Long if the S&P 500 primary trend turns upwards.
A better than expected consumer confidence report boosted tech stocks, including blue chips Microsoft, IBM and Dell. (more)
New York (18.15): Spot gold dropped sharply, currently trading at $US 365.20.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
The intermediate trend is down but on a weak signal. A rise above 2973 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) shows bullish accumulation; MACD (26,12,9) is still below its signal line.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( crosses above 3062 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Last covered on April 22, 2003.
I find that the 3-Month % Of High stock screen turns up a number of breakouts from stage 1 bases. OSH has formed a broad base after a lengthy down-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has climbed above zero, signaling accumulation.
The pattern is completed by a breakout at [f].
Note the higher volume at [c] and [f], with a lower spike at [e].
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are rising; Twiggs Money Flow (21) respected the zero line, a strong bull signal.
The rally to [f] shows strong volume, but some weak closes indicate selling into the rally.
Volume at , after the breakout, appears thin.
This presents an opportunity to place tight stops just below the low of the pull-back.
A break below 0.69, the low of [f], would be bearish, signaling a re-test of the base support levels.
The power of acute observation
is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it.
- George Bernard Shaw
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