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May 21, 2003
The intermediate upward trendline has been broken. A fall below 8394 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The intermediate upward trend is weakening. A fall below 912 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The intermediate trend is weakening. A fall below 1478 will signal a down-trend.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
The Fed chairman says that production and employment are weak but stronger financial markets and productivity gains point the way to recovery. (more)
New York (18.57): Spot gold has reached $US 371.10.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
The intermediate trend has reversed downwards but on a weak signal. A false break is often followed by a rally; so traders need to stay alert.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is rising.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
I projected a long-term target of 9.75 on January 2, 2003 on the Chart Forum .
The stock has made healthy gains since then, but now shows signs of weakness. Price made a High at [a] after several weeks of strong volume; and the subsequent correction was accompanied by a dry-up of volume. The next rally to [b] was on lower volume and failed to match the previous High. Another high at [c], on even lower volume, formed a small double top.
A lower double top (after a new high) in an up-trend is a bear signal.
On the daily chart you can see the lower double top completed by a break below the intervening trough at [d].
Intermediate traders should not trade against the primary trend, but look to take profits after rallies off the primary trend line (primary trend movements) and re-enter after corrections. Short-term traders are able to place tight stops, above the most recent high at 8.65, and trade the secondary correction back to the long-term trendline.
A break above the high of [c] would be a bull signal.
Absorb what is useful,
reject what is useless,
and add what is specifically your own.
- Bruce Lee
(not exactly intended for traders, but useful advice nonetheless)
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