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Trading Diary
May 21, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow made a weak opening but then rallied to test resistance at 8523, forming an inside day on strong volume. The index closed up 0.3% at 8516.
The intermediate upward trendline has been broken. A fall below 8394 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.

The S&P 500 also formed an inside day, closing 4 points higher at 923.
The intermediate upward trend is weakening. A fall below 912 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.

The Nasdaq Composite closed 2 points down at 1489.
The intermediate trend is weakening. A fall below 1478 will signal a down-trend.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator retreated slightly to 61.17% on May 20, following a Bull Correction buy signal on April 3. 

Market Strategy
Short-term: Short if the S&P intermediate trend falls below 912.
Intermediate: Long if the Dow/S&P primary trend turns upwards; go short if the intermediate trend (S&P) reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.


Alan Greenspan
The Fed chairman says that production and employment are weak but stronger financial markets and productivity gains point the way to recovery.
(more)




Gold
New York (18.57): Spot gold has reached $US 371.10.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries again tested support, reaching 2908 at the opening before rallying to close at 2915. 
The intermediate trend has reversed downwards but on a weak signal. A false break is often followed by a rally; so traders need to stay alert.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.

MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is rising.





Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords rises above 2918; short if the XAO falls below 2908.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.


SIMS Metal [SMS]
I projected a long-term target of 9.75 on January 2, 2003 on the Chart Forum .

The stock has made healthy gains since then, but now shows signs of weakness. Price made a High at [a] after several weeks of strong volume; and the subsequent correction was accompanied by a dry-up of volume. The next rally to [b] was on lower volume and failed to match the previous High. Another high at [c], on even lower volume, formed a small double top.

A lower double top (after a new high) in an up-trend is a bear signal.





Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) appears to be turning downwards and MACD is bearish but Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) still signals accumulation.

On the daily chart you can see the lower double top completed by a break below the intervening trough at [d].





SMS is likely to re-test support at 8.00 and possibly return to the long-term trendline.

Intermediate traders should not trade against the primary trend, but look to take profits after rallies off the primary trend line (primary trend movements) and re-enter after corrections. Short-term traders are able to place tight stops, above the most recent high at 8.65, and trade the secondary correction back to the long-term trendline.

A break above the high of [c] would be a bull signal.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



New! Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


Absorb what is useful,
reject what is useless,
and add what is specifically your own.

- Bruce Lee 
(not exactly intended for traders, but useful advice nonetheless)



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