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May 20, 2003
The intermediate upward trendline has been broken, signaling weakness.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The intermediate upward trendline is broken, signaling weakness.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up, but weakening.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
Treasury Secretaries who have come from an industry background tend to favor a weak dollar; to stimulate exports. Those who come from Wall Street favor a strong dollar; to protect the stock and bond markets. (more)
Hewlett-Packard, who last year merged with Compaq, reported first quarter earnings of 29 cents a share; two cents above analysts estimates. The PC-maker is still cautious about the sales outlook, but far less so than in the last quarter. (more)
New York (18.09): Spot gold continues to climb; currently at $US 368.20.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
The intermediate trend has reversed downwards but on a weak signal. A false break is often followed by a rally; so traders need to stay alert.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is weakening.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the XAO is below 2909.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Last mentioned on April 29, 2003.
It is too early to say that MIA has formed a reversal, but it has broken above its downward trendline and long-term moving average; and Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) has kicked up sharply, reflecting strong accumulation.
The first rally off a new low is only suitable for aggressive short-term traders who are prepared to get out at the first sign of trouble -- such as a trendline break.
The false break at  failed to close below the previous low and is followed by a fast rally to .
Price has encountered resistance at 0.72, the high of .
There is also further overhead resistance at 0.80.
But a break above 0.72 on strong volume may prove me wrong.
The art of making your dream a reality
is simply remaining committed long enough
for reality to catch up to your dream.
- R Fleming.
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