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Trading Diary
April 30, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow failed to break above resistance within the bullish ascending triangle, retreating 0.3% to close at 8480 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8587 will signal the start of an up-trend; a fall below 8109 will signal continuation.
March 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 7 points to close at 1464.
The intermediate trend is up; overhead resistance is at 1521.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 closed almost unchanged; 1 point down at 916.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is rising after a Bull Correction buy signal; up almost 1% at 51.76% (April 29). 

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 922; short if the intermediate trend reverses down (or falls below 862).
Intermediate: Long if the Dow/S&P primary trend reverses upwards; short if the intermediate trend (S&P) reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.


Greenspan
Alan Greenspan tells Congress that he sees signs of recovery but warns that business caution and high unemployment may inhibit. (more)




Gold
New York (18.14): Spot gold rallied strongly to $US 339.10.



ASX Australia
The ASX formed a doji star on higher volume; a fall below 2948 would signal a reversal. The index closed unchanged at 2971.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down, although the trendline has been broken; a rise above 3062 will signal a reversal.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) has crossed below the upward trendline but continues to signal accumulation.





The monthly Coppock indicator continues downwards. 
An up-turn below zero would signal the start of a bull market.





Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the index is above 2984; short if the intermediate trend reverses down (or XAO falls below 2910).
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.


West Australian Newspapers [WAN]
Consumer Discretionary sector, including several Media stocks, are showing signs of recovery.
WAN has formed a broad base after a stage 3 top in 1998. The stock formed a broad descending triangle but has held above support at 4.80.

Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals strong accumulation, especially from [c] to [g]. 





For the past 18 months WAN has consolidated in a narrow range between 5.30 and 4.80.

MACD and Twiggs Money Flow (21) are bullish.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising.





If we analyze the last month using equivolume, there are several positive signs:
  • WAN encountered strong selling pressure at [1] but overcame this without any significant retracement;
  • the stock rallied strongly to [3];
  • the weak correction to [4] signals strong buying support;
  • again, at [5], WAN was able to overcome selling pressure to break above resistance;
  • the rally ran out of steam at [6] but the correction was short and volume dried up at [8];
  • price is consolidating just below the resistance level, with 2 more tests of resistance, albeit on light volume.





Aggressive short-term traders may find entry points if volume and volatility dry up on a correction below the resistance level.
More conservative traders may enter on a break above 5.30; possibly adding to the position on a subsequent pull-back, if it respects the new support level.

A break below 5.15 would be bullish.


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Colin Twiggs


As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain;
and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.

- Albert Einstein.







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