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Trading Diary
April 23, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow encountered resistance above 8500, closing only 0.36% up at 8515 on higher volume. The index is testing the upper border of the bullish ascending triangle from the last 5 weeks.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8552 will signal reversal to an up-trend; a fall below 8109 will signal continuation.
March 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.0% to close at 1466.
The intermediate trend is in an up-trend.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 climbed a further 9 points to close at 919.
The intermediate trend is in an up-trend.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator climbed to 50% (April 22), after completing a Bull Correction buy signal. 

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long as long as the S&P 500 holds above 904.
Intermediate: Long only when the Dow/S&P primary trend reverses upwards; short if the Dow falls below 8109 (S&P: 862).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.


Is the market stuck in a range?
There is a widely-held view that the market is ranging, but is this correct? (more)




Gold
New York (17.36): Spot gold eased to $US 330.90.



ASX Australia
The ASX broke through resistance to close up 22 points at 2964. Continued low volume signals a lack of commitment from buyers. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 3062 will signal a reversal.

MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are above their signal lines; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the index holds above 2948 (keep stops tight in case this is a false break); short if the index falls below 2888.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (below 2888).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through day. Wait for confirmation from the primary trend reversal.


Tabcorp Holdings [TAH]
Last covered on December 13, 2002.
Several stocks in the Casinos & Gaming sector have started trending upwards.
The weekly chart shows that TAH has broken above its long-term downward trendline. The primary trend will reverse up if price breaks above resistance at 10.90.

Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals distribution, but the 21-day indicator shows a strong bullish divergence.




Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising and MACD shows a bullish divergence at [6] and [8].





The equivolume chart shows multiple higher lows at [8], [10], [12] and [14] -- a bullish signal. Volume confirmation is fairly weak with strong volume on weak closes at [7] and from [11] to [12]; and weak volume at [19].

A pull-back below resistance at 10.93 may present opportunities for short-term traders. Long entries can be taken on a short duration pull-back with light volume.

A fall below 10.40 would be bearish.





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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
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Colin Twiggs


Our plans miscarry because they have no aim.
When a man does not know what harbor he is making for,
no wind is the right wind.

- Seneca.







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