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Trading Diary
April 21, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow eased slightly to close at 8328 on low volume. The index has been testing the lower border of the bullish ascending triangle from the last 4 weeks.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8552 will signal reversal to an up-trend; a fall below 8109 will signal continuation.
Monday 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 1 point to close at 1424.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 1430 will signal a reversal; a fall below 1351 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 also closed down 1 point at 892.
The intermediate trend is down; a fall below 862 will signal continuation, a rise above 904 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rose to 48% (April 18), after completing a Bull Correction buy signal. 

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the Dow rises above 8552; short if the Dow falls below 8109.
Intermediate: Long if the Dow/S&P primary trend reverses upwards; short if the Dow falls below 8109.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.


Oil
The first Iraqi refinery moves back into production. Crude prices edge above $31 per barrel as Opec cuts back to avoid a glut. (more)




Gold
New York (19.04): Spot gold climbed steadily to $US 333.40.



ASX Australia
The ASX was closed on Easter Monday.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the index rises above 2947 (keep stops tight in case of a false break); short if the index falls below 2888 (to late to get in at 2944).
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (below 2888).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through day. Wait for confirmation from the primary trend reversal.


Bank of Queensland [BOQ]
Last covered on April 8, 2003.
BOQ recently made a new high but then experienced a pull-back below resistance at 7.86. The pull-back encountered support at 7.70 with a long shadow at [5]. Price has since consolidated between 7.70 and 7.82 with big volume signaling accumulation at [6].




The short pull-back and accumulation at [6] signal that a further rally is likely. A break above 7.82 will be a bull signal; a break below 7.70 would be bearish.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
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Colin Twiggs


If you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop diggin'.

- Will Rogers.







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