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Trading Diary
April 14, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow rallied strongly, up 1.8% to close at 8351 on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8552 will signal a reversal to an up-trend; a fall below 7903 will signal continuation.
Monday 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% to close at 1384.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above the equal highs at 1430 will signal a reversal; a fall below 1336 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 rallied strongly to close up 17 points at 885.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 904.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 46% (April 11), after completing a Bull Correction buy signal. 

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the Dow rises above 8552; short if the Dow falls below 7903.
Intermediate: Long only when the Dow/S&P primary trend reverses upwards; short if the Dow falls below 7903.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.


Tech stocks
IBM and Microsoft lead a tech stock rally. (more)




Gold
New York (18.36): Spot gold is down at $US 324.40.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed closed 3 points down at 2905 on light volume. Volume and volatility are drying up on the correction; a bullish sign.
The intermediate up-trend continues, but the upward trendline has been broken; so we need to be alert for signs of weakness. 
The primary trend is down.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.





Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the index rises above 2918 (keep stops tight in case of a false break); short if the index falls below 2888.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (below 2888).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through day. Wait for confirmation from the primary trend reversal.


Pan Pharmaceutical [PPH]
Pan is one of several Health Care stocks in the ASX 200 that are forming a stage 1 base. The stock also threatens to break above its long-term downward trendline. 

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has leveled; MACD shows a bullish divergence; Twiggs Money Flow (21) shows distribution.





Equivolume shows that a break above 1.43 would complete a double bottom pattern. There is strong volume on the recent rally and the projected target would be resistance at 1.60.

The weak Twiggs Money Flow warns us to be cautious. There may still be another re-test of support at 1.20.





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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



New! Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded.
Colin Twiggs


Most of us have the will to win, 
but few have the will to prepare to win.


- Bill McLaren, quoting an American Football coach.







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