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Trading Diary
April 8, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow moved sideways, closing almost unchanged at 8298. The
narrow range and lower volume signal uncertainty.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The intermediate cycle is down; a rise above 8552 will signal a reversal; a fall below 7903 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is down.
The Nasdaq Composite closed 0.5% lower at 1382.
The intermediate trend is down; a rise above 1430 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower at 878.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 895.
The primary trend is down.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 46% (April 7), after a Bull Correction buy signal.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The intermediate cycle is down; a rise above 8552 will signal a reversal; a fall below 7903 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is down.
The Nasdaq Composite closed 0.5% lower at 1382.
The intermediate trend is down; a rise above 1430 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower at 878.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 895.
The primary trend is down.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 46% (April 7), after a Bull Correction buy signal.
Iraq and the economy
The market is weighed down by increased civilian casualties, including several journalists, and poor economic news on the home front. (more)
The market is weighed down by increased civilian casualties, including several journalists, and poor economic news on the home front. (more)
Gold
New York (17.50): Spot gold is level at $US 323.00.
New York (17.50): Spot gold is level at $US 323.00.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries retreated to 2920, but rallied to close at
2941 on strong volume, signaling continuation.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
Strategy
Short-term: Long if the index rises above 2947 (keep stops tight
in case of a false break); short if the index falls below 2830.
Intermediate: Long if XAO is above 3062; short if the index is
below 2666.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 18 follow through and April 3 Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from the intermediate signal.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 18 follow through and April 3 Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from the intermediate signal.
Bank of Queensland [BOQ]
Last covered on March 25, 2003.
BOQ established a new high on Monday, reaching 8.15 before retreating sharply on strong volume. Tuesday opened at 8.00 but closed at 7.99, again on strong volume. Twiggs Money Flow is cause for concern, showing a strong bearish divergence.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising and MACD is positive.
Last covered on March 25, 2003.
BOQ established a new high on Monday, reaching 8.15 before retreating sharply on strong volume. Tuesday opened at 8.00 but closed at 7.99, again on strong volume. Twiggs Money Flow is cause for concern, showing a strong bearish divergence.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising and MACD is positive.
The daily equivolume chart offers some reassurance: the two
consolidations in the latest up-trend, at [1] and [2], show big
volume but very little retreat in price; a bullish sign. But the
breakout at [3] has a very weak close and [4] failed to make
further progress, despite strong volume. The behavior reflects
significant profit-taking and it would be prudent to wait for a
pull-back (or consolidation) before taking further long entries.
Colin Twiggs
Do not be desirous of having things done quickly.
Do not look at small advantages.
Desire to have things done quickly prevents their being done
thoroughly.
Looking at small advantages prevents great affairs from being
accomplished.
- The Analects of Confucius.
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