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Trading Diary
April 7, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow shows a gravestone reversal signal, testing resistance at 8500 before retreating to close at 8300. The index was up 0.3% on higher volume.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763). 
The intermediate cycle is down; a rise above 8552 will signal a reversal; a fall below 7903 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite formed an open-close reversal: the index gapped up at the opening to reach a high of 1430, but retreated sharply to close only 6 points up at 1389.
The intermediate trend is down; a rise above 1430 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 also shows a gravestone reversal, closing 1 point higher at 879.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 895.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 44% (April 4), after a Bull Correction buy signal. 


Iraq 
The market surged on news that coalition forces had entered Baghdad, but strong selling emerged before the close. (more)




Gold
New York (17.40): Spot gold is lower at $US 323.10.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied strongly to 2942, and appears set to test the long-term downward trendline. The index closed up 46 points, but low volume places a question mark over buyers commitment.
The intermediate up-trend continues. 
The primary trend is down.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is positive.





Strategy
Short-term: Wait for a correction before taking further Long; short if the index falls below 2830.
Intermediate: Long if XAO is above 3062; short if the index is below 2666.
Long-term: Wait for the March 18 follow through and April 3 Bullish % signal to be confirmed by the intermediate signal.


Burswood [BIR]
Last covered on September 19, 2002.
BIR has formed a broad base above support at 0.60. We now see a higher low at [A] after a successful test of the support level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) shows signs of accumulation.

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising; MACD is positive; while Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) hovers around the zero line after completing a bullish divergence in November.





The daily equivolume chart shows a power box at [5], but the breakout failed to hold above resistance at 0.77. Further consolidation just below the resistance level or a weak correction should present useful entry points. If the rally surges straight ahead it may be prudent to wait for a pull-back before entering.

The target for a breakout above 0.77 would be the 1.00 resistance level.





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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
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For further assistance see Understanding the Trading Diary.

Colin Twiggs


Opportunities flit by while we sit
regretting the chances we have lost.

- Jerome K Jerome.







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