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Trading Diary
April 4, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed an inside day, up 0.5% to close at 8277 on lower volume.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763). 
The intermediate cycle is down; a rise above 8552 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 1% to close at 1383.
The intermediate trend is down; a rise above 1425 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 edged up 2 points to close at 878.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 895.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has reversed upwards to 44% (April 3), completing a Bull Correction buy signal. 


Iraq 
Oil prices fall as coalition forces make further progress. Brent Crude is down 4% at $24.45 per barrel. (more)

Unemployment
The market remains focused on the war and shrugged off weak employment figures. (more)




Gold
New York (15.30): Spot gold closed at $US 325.20.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries is close to resistance at 2920. A rise above this level will most likely break the long-term downward trendline as well. The index closed up 49 points at 2896 on low volume.
The intermediate up-trend continues, but a lack of volume on the last bar indicates that the latest rally is tentative. 
The primary trend is down.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals distribution.





Strategy
Short-term: L long if XAO remains above 2875; short if the index falls below 2830.
Intermediate: Long if XAO is above 3062; short if the index is below 2666.
Long-term: Wait for the March 18 follow through to be confirmed by the intermediate signal.


Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 4 (RS is rising)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
Sector Comparison Chart: Financials-X-Property and Consumer Discretionary are showing signs of recovery; Information Technology is still weak.





Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) returned 67 stocks (compared to 99 on August 23, 2002; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Banks were most prominent:
  • Banks (8)
  • REITs (5)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (4)
  • Agricultural Products (3)
  • Broadcasting & TV (3)
  • Diversified Commercial (3)
  • Diversified Financial (3)


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
Colin Twiggs


The better part of valor is discretion.

- William Shakespeare: Henry IV.







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