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February 18, 2003
If the rally carries above the first resistance level at 8189, this will signal that the down-trend (secondary/intermediate cycle) is weak.
The primary trend is down.
The Nasdaq Composite gapped up 2.8% to close at 1346.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 gained 16 points to close at 851.
The first resistance level is 868.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 42% (February 14).
New York (16.45): Spot gold is down 310 cents at $US 343.60.
If the index moves lower on Wednesday, this will signal that the down-trend is still strong and threaten the 2779 support level.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is below; Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution.
The Energy Index is in a stage 4 down-trend while Santos has been forming a stage 3 top over the past 2 years, in the form of a symmetrical triangle.
I have plotted a longer 100-day Twiggs Money Flow to highlight the long-term cycle of accumulation/distribution. This highlights several useful divergences at reversals in the primary trend. The indicator now signals weakness.
Relative Strength (price ratio:xao) is moving sideways; while MACD is bearish; and 20-day Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution.
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
I have found that the greatest traders are the
ones who are most afraid of the markets.
My fear of the markets has forced me to hone my timing with great precision.
- Mark Weinstein explains his high percentage of winning trades;
from Market Wizards by Jack Schwager.