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January 24, 2003
The primary trend is down and will only reverse up if the Dow breaks above 9076 (the high from December 02).
The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.3% to close at 1342.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed down 26 points at 861, below support at 867. This completes a head and shoulders pattern (intermediate/secondary cycle) with a target of 784, near the floor of the base (965 to 768).
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 54% (January 23).
Gold and treasury bonds rise, while the US dollar weakens, ahead of the UN weapons inspectors' report due Monday. (more)
Morgan Stanley downgrades the insurance sector, causing an 8% fall in the market's largest insurer. (more)
New York: Spot gold soared 470 cents to $US 367.70 at the close.
Over the last 3 months the index has been forming a base between 2915 and 3050.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) and MACD (26,12,9) are below their signal lines; Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution.
The ASX has formed a large symmetrical triangle since its high of March 1999. There have been several trading opportunities as price ranged between 10.00 and 14.00 over the last 2 years. Price has again turned up off the lower trendline at [K], completing a small ascending triangle at [L].
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is neutral, MACD is positive and Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
Note how volume dried up on the last down-swing at  before the breakout.
Price has since pulled back to 11.70, with the broad blue bars signaling strong buying support.
A break below 11.70 would be a bear signal and is a logical place to position a stop-loss.
Changes are highlighted in bold.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 4 (RS is rising)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) returned 51 stocks (compared to 99, August 23rd and 10 on October 4th). Notable sectors are:
- Auto Parts & Equipment
- Diversified Financial Services
- Diversified Metals & Mining
- Oil & Gas Exploration
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
The worst thing you can do is nothing.
- Theodore Roosevelt.