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January 16, 2003
The average is ranging between 8161 and 9076, at the top end of the base that has been forming since July 2002; a bullish sign.
The primary trend is down and will only reverse up if the average rises above 9076 (the high from December 02).
The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0% to close at 1423.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 lost 4 points to close at 914. The short-term trend shows weakness.
The index ranges between 965 and 768, establishing a base. It has recently held above 867; a bullish sign.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 52% (January 15).
The likelihood of another gulf war draws closer as UN weapons inspectors find empty chemical warheads.
New York: Spot gold reached a 5-year high, up 690 cents at $US 357.50
The index ranges between 2915 and 3050, forming a base.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs money flow is falling.
HVN formed a triple top at [A], [D] and [F] before entering a stage 4 down-trend. Note the false break at [D]; a strong bear signal.
The stock then appeared to form a base at [K] to [L], followed by a break above resistance at [M]. This proved to be a bull trap, with a break below the trendline at [N]; a very reliable bear signal if traders are able to reverse their mind-set quickly enough to catch it. We are now presented with another potential bottom: a low at  followed by a false break at  and an ascending triangle to .
Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is starting to rise; MACD has completed a bullish divergence but has not yet broken above the long-term trendline; Twiggs money flow signals accumulation, having completed a bullish divergence [+].
HVN is now forming a congestion pattern just above the new support line. A break above the congestion pattern, especially if accompanied by strong volume, will be a bullish signal.
Conservative traders may wait until the stock has broken above the long-term trendline, on the weekly chart or on the MACD indicator.
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
- Another paradox. To conquer our fear we must not fight it but accept it.