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January 15, 2003
The average is ranging between 8161 and 9076, at the top end of the base that has been forming since July 2002; a bullish sign.
The primary trend is down and will only reverse up if the average rises above 9076 (the high from December 02).
The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5% to close at 1438.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 formed an outside day, closing down 13 points at 918. The short-term trend shows weakness.
The index ranges between 965 and 768, establishing a base. It has recently held above 867; a bullish sign.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 52% (January 14).
Intel beat earnings forecasts for the fourth quarter but its cautious outlook for 2003 has placed a damper on the technology sector.
Apple posted a loss after restructuring charges.
New York: Spot gold eased 30 cents to $US 350.60
The index ranges between 2915 and 3050, forming a base. A break out of the base will signal a primary trend change to an up-trend. Look for volume confirmation.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs money flow is falling.
Another stock from the Diversified Financial Services sector, PPT formed a double top at  and  before a stage 4 down-trend. There was a strong reversal from  to  before the down-trend resumed and the stock fell to 30.00. PPT now appears to have bottomed at , breaking the long-term trend-line in December and rising above the previous high at .
Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is rising and MACD has completed a bullish divergence. But Twiggs money flow still signals weakness, failing to cross above zero.
- The base is narrow;
- There was no volume confirmation within the triangle pattern;
- Low volume on the breakout; and
- No real increase in volume on the rally.
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
- An interesting paradox that applies to technical analysis as well as to many other fields.
Too much analysis leads to paralysis.