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Trading Diary
November 21, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




Understanding the Trading Diary provides further guidance.

USA
The Dow gained 2.5% to take out the high from early November, closing at 8845 on strong volume.
The primary trend will reverse (up) if the index rises above 9130.

The Nasdaq Composite Index took out the August high of 1426, completing a primary trend reversal. The index closed up 3.4% at 1467.

The S&P 500 gained 19 points to close at 933.
The primary trend will complete a double bottom reversal if it rises above 965.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator signals a bull alert at 42% (November 20).


GE reduces forecasts
General Electric announces that it will take a $US 1.4 billion charge in its struggling Employers Reinsurance division and reduces earnings forecasts for the year. (more)



Gold
New York: Spot gold is almost unchanged at $US 317.20.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke above the previous high, confirming that the short-trend is up and closing up 19 points at 2985 on strong volume.
The primary trend will reverse if the index rises above 3150.
The MACD (26,12,9) has joined Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) above its signal line, and Twiggs money flow signals accumulation.





Symex [SYM]
This chemical company has broken the trendline from a stage 4 down-trend after completing an ascending triangle. Price then rallied before pulling back to test the support level. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) started to rise while the triangle was forming and confirmed the change at [1] where the trough ended higher than the previous indicator peak. Twiggs money flow is also rising.




MACD has risen since a bullish divergence in August.





Gaps accompanied by large volume can form major support and/or resistance levels. The strong downward gap from [2] to [3] and strong buying support at [3] and [4] exhausted the down-trend. The rally at [5] failed to break above the lower end of the gap but was followed by higher troughs and peaks at [6] and [8]. The rally at [8] attempted to close the earlier gap but failed at the upper limit. Thin volume on the pull-back to [9] signals the likelihood of a further rally.





The low at [9] is not an entry point: there is strong overhead resistance at the lows of [1] and [2]. A break above 1.02 will be mildly bullish while a break above 1.11 gives a stronger signal.
A break below 0.92 would be bearish.




Short-term: Long: The Slow Stochastic and MACD are above their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Long. Use stop losses to protect yourself against a sudden reversal.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


He that will not apply new remedies
must expect new evils;
for time is the greatest innovator.

- Francis Bacon: Of Innovations (1625)






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