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Trading Diary
October 15, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .






USA
The Dow had a follow-through day on strong volume, rising 4.8% to 8255. This completes a bottom reversal as defined by William O'Neil. The Dow Theory measure of primary trend direction will only turn up if we have a rally above 9130 of at least 3 weeks duration.

The Nasdaq Composite Index gapped up to close at 1282, an increase of more than 5%. The follow-through day completes a bottom reversal as defined by William O'Neil. The primary trend will reverse if the rally lasts 3 or more weeks and breaks above 1426.

The S&P 500 gained 40 points to close at 881, breaking through resistance at 855. The follow-through day completes a bottom reversal as defined by William O'Neil. The index will complete a double bottom if it rises above 965. The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator reflects a bear confirmed signal at 26% (October 14).



Wall Street rally
Better than expected results from Johnson&Johnson, Citigroup and General Motors boosted the market at the opening. (J&J)(Citi)(GM)
Intel later disappointed with third-quarter earnings of 11 cents per share compared to expectations of 13 cents. (Intel)



Gold
New York: Spot gold last traded at $US 313.50, falling 390 cents to the lowest close in more than a month.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries completed a follow-through day on higher volume, breaking above resistance at 2940. The index closed up 30 points at 2946.
A break above 3150 will signal a primary trend reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) has joined Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) above its signal line. Twiggs money flow signals accumulation following a bullish divergence.





BHP Billiton [BHP]
Last covered on August 7.
BHP has formed two fairly equal lows about 12 months apart, after a stage 4 down-trend. A rise to 12.50 would complete a double bottom reversal. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is rising and the stock appears to be forming a bullish ascending triangle.





Twiggs money flow reflects a series of bullish divergences and is now signaling accumulation, above zero.





MACD also shows a bullish divergence. Resistance has formed at 9.55 to 9.66. Volume on the latest rallies is a bit thin.





A break above 9.55 will be a bear signal, confirmed if volume rises and price penetrates above 9.66. A break below 8.71 will be bearish.



Short-term: Long. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are above their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Long. I have seen bottom reversals fail before, within 3 or 4 days of the follow-through, but never one with this significant an increase in volume, and across all three averages.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


Thought for the Day:

At times like this it is important to ignore all the speculation and conflicting opinions in the press
and to just concentrate on the message from the charts:

You do not need to know what the market is going to do!
All you need to know is what the market has actually done! This is the key! 

 - William J O'Neil, How to
Make Money in Stocks






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