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Trading Diary
October 07, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .






USA
The Dow lost a further 1.4% to close at 7423 on lower volume.
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 1.8% to close at 1119.
The primary trend is down.

The S&P 500 has broken below support at 800 and is testing July lows, closing 15 points down at 785.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator reflects a bear confirmed signal at 30% (October 4).



JP Morgan cuts staff
The decision by JP Morgan to cut 4000 (20%) of its workforce may be the forerunner of staff cuts in an overweight US brokerage industry. (more)



Gold
New York: The spot gold price is unchanged at $US 322.10.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries index has broken through support at 2940 to 2909, closing at 2896 on low volume. The next band of support is at 2867 to 2828, from September 2001. The primary trend is down.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below its signal line, to join MACD (26,12,9). Twiggs money flow signals distribution.





QBE Insurance [QBE]
After a disastrous fall in September 2001, QBE has entered a stage 1 base, with relative strength (price ratio: xao) rising. The 150-day exponential moving average has leveled after a long decline.





The daily chart shows a bullish ascending triangle pattern and a bullish divergence on Twiggs money flow.





Last covered on September 10, after a strong selloff [1], QBE rallied to re-test resistance at 7.64 [2]. The test was weak, as can be seen from the low close, and it may take several more tests before a rally breaks above the resistance level.
The shaded areas on the equivolume chart depict closing prices: the lighter shade is above the close in an up-trend, and below the close in a down-trend.






Conclusion

Short-term: Short. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are below their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).

Colin Twiggs


Thought for the Day:

To be a successful trader, you have to be able to admit mistakes .... the person who can easily admit to being wrong is the one who walks away a winner.

Victor Sperandeo - The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager






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