August 12, 2002
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
The Dow again showed consolidation, closing down
0.7% at 8688 on low volume.
The primary cycle trend is downwards but a rally above 8806 will
signal a reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has given a
bull alert signal, with a reading of 30% (August 9).
The Nasdaq Composite opened sharply lower but then rallied to
close unchanged at 1306.
The primary cycle is in a down-trend. Failure to reach the 1355
resistance level will be a bearish sign.
The S&P 500 declined 0.5% to 903.
The primary cycle trends downwards. A break above 912 will
signal a reversal.
Fed likely to disappoint
The Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday is unlikely to deliver the
hoped-for rate cut. (more)
Treasury yields edge lower
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed at 4.22%, close to
levels last seen in the 1960's. (more)
The All Ordinaries showed further hesitation, closing down 1
point at 3052 on low volume. The primary cycle trends down.
The Stochastic (20,3,3) and MACD (26,12,9) are above their signal
lines. Twiggs money flow shows uncertainty, crossing back below
Bendigo Bank [BEN]
Bendigo announce a 47% increase in net profits to $48.8 million,
with growth in all departments. (more)
BEN has gapped up to a new 5-month high on strong volume.
Relative strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are positive, while
Twiggs money flow has completed a trough while above zero - a
Lion Nathan [LNN]
LNN has gapped up above recent
highs but on disappointing volume [V]. Relative strength (price
ratio: xao) and Twiggs money flow are positive, while MACD looks
Short-term: Long. Slow Stochastic and MACD are above their
respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500
Thought for the Day:
There is a tide in the affairs of
men, which, taken at the flood leads on to fortune.
- William Shakespeare, on market timing.
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