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Trading Diary
August 5, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .





USA
The Dow fell 3.2% to 8043, extinguishing any chance of a "V" bottom. The primary cycle trends downwards.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has given a bull alert signal, starting a new column with a reading of 30% (August 2).

The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.3% to close at 1206, close to the 1200 support level from July 24th. The primary cycle is in a down-trend.

The S&P 500 down 30 points at 834, below the follow-through day from last Monday.
The primary cycle trends downwards.

 
Slow service sector
The Institute for Supply Management service sector index (retail, financial, construction and other non-manufacturing activity) fell to 53.1 in July, from 57.2 in June. (more)
 
Procter & Gamble
Cost savings helped turn around fourth-quarter earnings of 64 cents per share, compared to a loss of 23 cents a year earlier. (more)
 
Cisco
Lehman Bros. downgrade Cisco, a day before the networking company is to release its fourth-quarter earnings. (more)
 
 
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed down 42 points at 2961 on very low volume. The index is still above the 2940 support level. The primary cycle trends down.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line. Exponentially-smoothed money flow signals distribution.
 

 
 
AMP [AMP]
AMP closed down at $13.44 after its recent profit warning, the lowest price traded since its listing more than 4 years ago. Relative strength (price ratio: xao), MACD and exponentially-smoothed money flow are all weak.
 

 
 
Hardman Resources [HDR]
HDR continues to trend strongly. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are positive, and Twiggs Money Flow has crossed to above zero, signaling accumulation.

 


 
 
 
 
TAB Queensland [TQL]
TQL recently formed 2 equal highs at $ 3.90. Could this be a double top forming? MACD was weaker on the second peak but relative strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly and Twiggs Money Flow shows strong accumulation on the second peak.

 


 
 
 
 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid new entries. Slow Stochastic and MACD are on opposite sides of their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 
Colin Twiggs
 
Thought for the Day:

The bow that is always bent will soon cease to shoot straight.
- Old proverb.
 
 




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