sitesearch
 


Trading Diary
July 5, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow rocketed up 3.5% to close at 9379 on very low volumes. If the rally continues, a break above 9435 will complete a double bottom pattern with a target of 10035.
This is a bear market, with primary and secondary cycles trending down.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied almost 5% to 1448.
The primary and secondary cycles are in a down-trend.

The S&P 500 gained 35 points to 989.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Tech rally
Technology stocks rallied strongly, with Intel (up 10%) and other chip stocks leading the charge. (more)
  
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries see-sawed before closing up 7 points at 3164 on low volume. 
A break above 31.80 would complete a short double-bottom pattern with a target of 32.30.
Primary and secondary cycles are in a bear trend.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed above its signal line. 
Exponentially-smoothed Money Flow shows a slight bullish divergence.


 

AurionGold rejects bid [AOR]
AurionGold rejected the Placer Dome bid because of a 25% fall in the stock price of the Canadian company. (more)
AOR has made a correction (secondary cycle) back towards the long-term moving average
MACD and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) are weakening but exponentially-smoothed Money Flow continues to signal accumulation.


 
PMP [PMP]
PMP has encountered resistance at 93 cents for several months. Exponentially-smoothed Money Flow and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) are strong but MACD shows a bullish divergence.



 

Sigma [SIG]
SIG appears to be forming a triangle top after a strong up-trend. The likely direction of the breakout is uncertain but the exponentially-smoothed Money Flow signals strong accumulation. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are improving.


Sector Analysis
Stage changes are highlighted in red.

Energy [XEJ] - stage 1

Materials [XMJ] - stage 4 (RS is rising)

Industrials [XNJ] - stage 4

Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 4

Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 3

Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4

Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2

Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 3

Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4

Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is rising)

Utilities [XUJ] - stage 1


The ASX has ceased to provide the old ASX indices.

Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of equities using % Price Move (1 month: +10%, 1 year: +30%) is dominated by Gold Explorers (Producers are notably absent). Oil & Gas Explorers, Mineral Sands and Diversified Media stocks are also evident.

 





Conclusion
 
Short-term: No long or short - the Slow Stochastic is above, and MACD below, their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 




Back Issues
Click here to access the Trading Diary Archives.



How Good Is Your Market Analysis?
Compare our market views.





The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.




Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.





 
Top of Page