June 19, 2002
These extracts from my daily
trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in
short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
The Dow fell 1.5% to close at 9561 on
The index is making another test of the 9500 support level. The
primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.
Chartcraft's NYSE Bullish % Indicator has given a bull
correction signal, warning investors to adopt defensive
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3% to close at
The primary cycle is in a bear trend. The short cycle has made
a higher peak but the secondary cycle is still in a
The S&P 500 lost 18 points to close at
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.
Morgan Stanley reports a 14%
fall in fourth-quarter earnings. Only investment banks focused on
fixed-income business have benefited from the current
Tech stocks are dumped after
AMD, Apple and Intel lower forecasts and the FTC files
anti-trust charges against Rambus. (more)
The All Ordinaries fell sharply to close 31
points down at 3231, on average volume.
The fall below the 3250 support level signals
the start of a primary bear trend.
Chaikin Money Flow continues to decline,
Seven Network acquires full control of
Pacific Magazines. (more)
SEV is in a bear trend, with Relative
Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD negative, while
Chaikin Money Flow shows a bullish divergence.
Toll Holdings [TOL]
Toll MD Paul Little expresses interest
in Mayne transport logistics business. (more)
TOL is in a ranging market with no clear
direction. Chaikin Money Flow showed a bearish divergence
in April after 8 months of consistent accumulation.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is weakening, while
MACD gives conflicting signals.
The XTU index has been in a Stage 3 [S3]
ranging market since October 2000.
The primary bull-trend continues.
Short-term: No signals yet from the Detrended Price
Oscillator and Chaikin MF.
Short-term: Short on completion of MACD/Slow
Stochastic signal - selected sectors only. The break below 3250
signals the start of a primary bear trend.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq
or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
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