Trading Diary
June 5, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow rallied more than 1% to 9796 on above-average volume. 
The primary trend is up, but a break below 9500 will signal a bear-trend, while the secondary cycle trends downwards.

The Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1% to 1595.
The primary and secondary cycles continue to trend downwards.

The S&P 500 recoverd 9 points to 1049.
The primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Wal-Mart sales are up
Wal-Mart reported a 6.2% increase in May sales on a same-store basis (excluding new store openings or closures). (more)
 
Service economy expanding
The Institute of Supply Management reported that its May US non-manufacturing index jumped to 60.1, from 55.3 in April . (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ords recovered by 3 points to 3004 on strong volume.
The primary trend is up, secondary trend - down. A break above 3370 would complete an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines.


 
Danone buys into dairy [NFD]
French dairy group Danone pays $102 million for 10.1 per cent of National Foods. (more)
NFD has climbed steeply over the last year but lately seems to have leveled off, with Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) failing to hold above zero.


 
Arnotts snack [SFL]
Arnotts launched a $260 million takeover bid for Snack Foods Limited, makers of Dick Smiths biscuits and CCs. (more)
SFL closed at $2.03. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is positive while Chaikin MF has shown strong accumulation since February.


 

Tabcorp [TAH]
The Victorian gaming operator remains silent on whether it is pursuing a major UK off-course bookmaking firm. (more)
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is positive and Chaikin MF shows strong accumulation over the last 4 months. MACD and Chaikin MF now show bearish divergences. A positive signal would be a break above resistance at $12.45, negative would be a break below support at $11.80.


 

Adultshop [ASC]
ASC recently broke out above resistance at 29 cents and is about to test support at this same level. Chaikin MF has shown strong accumulation over the last 8 months while Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are strong. 


 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid long. Maintain tight stop-losses.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 
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